Why you should look at demographic trends to invest in property

I recently had the pleasure to listen and read some of the amazing studies Simon Kuestenmacher does in the demography space.

Understanding the demographic changes that are set to affect our housing markets and businesses in the medium to long term is essential for anyone interested in property.

Recently, Simon wrote a series of articles for The New Daily outlining the changes he sees ahead for us over the next decade. These insights are not only crucial for property investors but also for business owners, as they provide services and accommodations that cater to evolving demographic needs.

In this blog post, I’ll dive deep into Simon’s insights, exploring the shifts that are on the horizon and what they mean for our future.

Millennial Housing Shift: The Baby Boom

One of the major demographic shifts Simon highlighted is the Millennial housing shift. Millennials are reaching the stage where they’re starting families, which means they’re looking for larger homes.

However, with baby boomer parents occupying many of the three and four-bedroom homes in the middle suburbs, Millennials are forced to look to the urban fringe for more affordable housing options.

This trend is expected to continue for the next decade, driving demand for housing on the outskirts of major cities.

Urban Planning Challenges

However, meeting this demand poses significant challenges for urban planners and policymakers.

While there’s a push for infill development within cities, the sheer scale of population growth requires substantial new housing construction on the outskirts.

This urban sprawl comes with its own set of challenges, including increased infrastructure costs and environmental impacts.

The Role of Local Councils and State Governments

Simon also discussed the role of local councils and state governments in managing urban growth. Local councils, driven by the NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) mentality, often resist development, leading to challenges in meeting housing targets.

State governments are increasingly stepping in to address this by setting strict housing targets and, in some cases, taking vetoing power away from local councils to ensure these targets are met.

Global Economic Landscape

Looking at the global economic landscape, Simon highlighted the impact of changing demographics on investment strategies.

With the baby boomer cohort moving into retirement, there’s a shift towards more conservative investments, favoring infrastructure and property over innovative startups.

This trend could benefit Australia, providing a secure investment platform for foreign capital.

China’s Stability and Australia’s Economic Outlook

Despite global economic challenges, Australia’s economy remains sound, with key sectors such as mining, agriculture, education, and tourism driving growth.

While Australia’s economic ties with China are significant, China’s own demographic challenges, including a shrinking population, mean that Australia remains an important supplier of food and energy to China, ensuring a stable economic relationship.

Educational and Workforce Trends

In terms of workforce and educational trends, Simon noted a growing emphasis on trades due to a shortage of skilled workers, particularly in industries like construction.

With more people pursuing university education, the pay premium for degrees may shrink, making trades a lucrative career option.

Future of Entertainment and Lifestyle

Looking ahead, Simon predicts that while technology will continue to change how we consume media, the basic trends in entertainment and lifestyle will remain relatively unchanged.

There may be a shift towards more curated content and a greater reliance on subject matter experts to filter information for consumers.

Transportation and Infrastructure

In terms of transportation, Simon believes that Australia will remain car-dependent, especially as Millennials transition to two-car households.

While there may be a gradual transition to electric vehicles, self-driving cars are still a long way off, with challenges such as a shortage of truck drivers looming in the short to medium term.

In conclusion, while the future holds some challenges, particularly in urban planning and workforce management, Australia remains well-positioned to navigate these changes. With a sound economy, a strong focus on education and innovation, and a stable relationship with key trading partners, Australia can continue to thrive in the coming decade.